Monday Night Football Preview: Patriots at Dolphins

Posted by Jimmy Johnson Monday, October 4, 2010


If the NFC West division is the epitome of mediocrity, with three teams tied at 2-2, than the AFC East wrote the rule book on diversity:

- Four teams, three different records and after tonight’s battle, a two-way tie for first place

The New York Jets (3-1 SU) have already secured their top ranking for at least another week and later this evening they will be joined by one of these foes.

The sportsbook have the line currently pegged as the visiting Patriots -1, with a Total of 45.5.

New England (2-1 SU) have been sharp for two and-a-half games this season, stumbling just once in the second-half against those same Jets in Week 2.

Miami (2-1 SU) also ran into the Green Monster last week in the Dolphins’ home opener. Before that the Dolphins played reasonably well but it’s hard to gauge a team on all levels when they kickoff the season with back-to-back road games.

Even after one start at home we can’t be a hundred percent sure of the offense but tonight the spotlight is on QB Chad Henne. He has been in the league long enough that the Mark Sanchez-type rookie mistakes no longer fly. And while it wouldn’t be fair to grade him against tonight’s opponent, Tom Brady, Dolphin bettors need to decide if this is another case of the Pennington’s or if Miami is a legitimate contender.

MATH MAN PREDICTOR
New England comes into this game as the NFL leader in points per game (30.0). Indianapolis (29.2) is a close second but saw its average drop slightly with yesterday’s loss in Jacksonville.

New England's defense has given up more than 27 points per game and has had trouble defending the Wildcat formation in the past. For New England to maintain its lead as the top scorer they need to score at least 27 points and the last time the Dolphins scored more than 25 points was Week 8, 2009 – 12 games ago.

JOE PUBLIC GOES "Over"
According to online sportsbook, 86-percent of bettors are predicting this game to see more than 46 points. New England has played over the total all three games this season – and five-straight if you count back to the end of last season, but the heavy public favs did not do very well on Sunday.

Washington at Philadelphia (88-percent) and Chicago at New York Giants (86-percent) were the two most popular Over/Under bets of Week 4 and both stayed under.

PREDICTION
Henne and his favorite new weapon, WR Brandon Marshall, will likely continue to get better as the season goes on. If Miami’s run game can find a good rhythm and stay there it will be a nice compliment to the offense and this team has good potential.

That’s too big of an “if” for us to consider backing any team against New England. Miami has historically been very successful on Monday Night Football but New England should be able to cover this small number.
Pick: Take the Patriots

, , edit post
0 comments

Post a Comment